Markets are cruising at records, but investors are getting nervous about the ultimate impact of tariffs, survey shows (2026)

Markets are enjoying a winning streak this summer, with retail traders igniting a new bout of meme mania, crypto bolstered by policy support from the Trump administration, and stocks shrugging off uncertainty to reach record highs.

Despite the apparent bullish sentiment, big investors are less confident than they appear on the surface.

A July 29 survey from CoreData Research found that many institutional investors are starting to deploy strategies to guard against a market downturn.

The research firm found that of the 132 institutional investors and 22 institutional consultants surveyed, 49% believe that markets are too complacent regarding the potential impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policies.

The data showed that roughly eight out of every 10 institutional investors are employing tactical or longer-term strategic shifts due to the volatility sparked by US trade policy.

Even as President Trump has reached trade agreements with Japan and the European Union this month, a cautious mentality appears widespread among institutions. CoreData found that 69% of big investors are concerned that trade policies will lead to a global shift away from treasuries and the US dollar.

Despite Trump's claims that his tariffs will benefit the US economy, 64% of respondents have expressed concern that they will lead to both structurally higher inflation and a slower rate of economic growth. Prominent economists have raised similar concerns.

According to Michael Morley, head of CoreData U.S., institutions are focused on decreasing risk and increasing portfolio resilience as a "wide range of economic scenarios" remain heavily in play.

"The research suggests that any optimism institutional investors have about the world's most important trade negotiations belies a sense that global trade already has irrevocably changed, and thus, portfolio construction must adapt to a new reality," he said.

Morley also noted that as it stands, Trump's early tariffs have posed little negative impact on the economy. However, it is clear that institutional investors are more focused on the long-term effects of these trade policies, which they see as ultimately negative.

In his view, the moves made by institutional investors reveal a "much nimbler reaction function" than they have previously displayed during previous market cycles regarding strategic allocation.

The firm added that these strategies involve "rotating to value stocks and/or defensive sectors (41%) or increasing cash allocations (40%). Few (20%) reported increasing commodities exposure."