Thailand's upcoming election is a high-stakes gamble, with progressives launching a bold new offensive against the entrenched establishment! As Thailand braces for a snap election on February 8th, the nation's political landscape appears fraught with challenges. We're seeing a rapid turnover of leadership, with three prime ministers in just three years. On top of this, the country has grappled with a costly border conflict with Cambodia, estimated to have drained at least $436 million, while projected GDP growth hovers at a modest 2 percent. Compounding these issues are reports of multi-billion-dollar scam operations flourishing alarmingly close to its borders.
The significance of Sunday's polls cannot be overstated, yet as the ABC has journeyed across the nation, speaking with voters, a palpable sense of caution has emerged. Many are still undecided, like retired farmer Kanonengnit, who was observed at Bangkok's renowned Khlong Lat Mayom floating market. "I'm still not sure [who to vote for]. I can't decide now because all the parties are campaigning on their policies," he shared. Similarly, Hat Yai resident Chanchai Saeung expressed his intention to make his choice "at the last minute." He voiced a sentiment echoed by many: "In my opinion, politicians don't care about what people think. They do everything to hold onto power. They keep promising things they can't do. They made promises and we had hope, but they couldn't do what they said."
Once bitten, twice shy: The deep-seated cynicism is understandable given the turbulent journey of Thailand's nascent democracy. Over the past quarter-century, a mere one elected government has managed to serve its full four-year term. The others have been unseated through military coups, often supported by conservative elites, or dissolved by the Constitutional Court, which itself is frequently perceived as being influenced by conservative elements.
However, the 2023 election marked a turning point. Thai voters, seemingly fed up, turned out in record numbers to deliver a resounding message to the conservative establishment. They overwhelmingly elected the progressive Move Forward Party, which campaigned on a platform of reducing the military's influence and reforming laws that criminalize criticism of the monarchy, a law under which several individuals had been imprisoned.
What transpired next was deeply disheartening for the 14 million individuals who had placed their trust in Move Forward. Despite winning the largest number of seats in the House of Representatives, the military-appointed Senate refused to endorse the party's leader as prime minister. Subsequently, the Constitutional Court dissolved the party entirely.
"The result of the election and the forming of the government, this should align in a normal democracy," stated Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, a co-founder of the Move Forward Party. "People were sad that the party they elected won the election, but we couldn't form the government."
'They are trying every way to stop us': This isn't the first time the prominent businessman has faced off against the establishment. His earlier political venture, Future Forward, was also dissolved by the court in 2020 for alleged election law violations. Critics, including Thanathorn himself, contend that these legal challenges were politically motivated.
"In the last eight years, many of us have been banned from politics," Thanathorn revealed to the ABC while assisting local candidates in the southern city of Hat Yai. "In my case, I've been banned from politics for 10 years. They are trying every way they can to stop us. They're afraid that the change we would bring to this country would stop the current system from benefiting the establishment."
For the current election, Thanathorn's movement has re-emerged as the People's Party and has consistently topped opinion polls. Yet, even before the first ballot is cast, a shadow looms. A significant number of its party members, forty-four, face long-term or even life bans from participating in elections.
In Hat Yai, a first-time candidate, Dr. Supat Hasuwannakit, is confronting a similar predicament. After a distinguished 30-year career as a public health official, and growing increasingly disillusioned with ineffective policies and governmental inefficiency, Dr. Supat resigned to run for the People's Party. "I realised that if I truly wanted to change the system for the better, then I must step into the role of a representative," he explained, distributing campaign flyers with his family. "That's why I made the decision to run for Member of Parliament in this election."
However, just two weeks before polling day, a sub-committee within the Health Ministry accused him of corrupt practices related to the procurement of COVID-19 test kits in 2021. The allegation stems from Dr. Supat placing five separate orders instead of a single, larger one as regulations required. While the Health Ministry did not comment on the ABC's inquiries, Dr. Supat defended his actions, explaining that during the pandemic's peak, he ordered in smaller batches due to uncertainty about the exact number of kits needed. He also noted that he secured them at a lower cost than the ministry's rates, aiming to support overwhelmed Bangkok hospitals.
Dr. Supat is appealing the decision, and if it stands, he would be disqualified from taking his parliamentary seat, even if he wins the election. "It is about destroying a political opponent," he stated somberly. "I knew it would be like this. There's nothing I can do."
Dr. Supat firmly believes the case is a political maneuver, not about test kits. As the former director of Chana Hospital in Songkhla province, he had been vocal about the government's delays in vaccine procurement and its push to legalize marijuana. At the time, Anutin Charnvirakul, now a prime ministerial candidate for the conservative Bhumjaithai Party and a key rival to the People's Party, was the health minister overseeing these initiatives. He has denied any involvement in the case against Dr. Supat.
But here's where it gets controversial... Some critics argue that the progressive party is partly to blame for its own challenges, citing alleged breaches of election regulations and defiance of the constitution. Yet, as the political maneuvering intensifies, the most significant obstacle for the People's Party might not be its conservative adversaries, but rather the cynicism of its own supporters.
"I think at stake here is the future of democracy," Thanathorn concluded. "Do not surrender. It's time for this country to change. Work with us."
What do you think? Is the system rigged against new political forces, or are parties like Move Forward responsible for navigating these challenges more effectively? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
