Imagine witnessing a sudden and dramatic shift in the global urban landscape—where a city long regarded as the world's most populous gracefully cedes its crown to emerging mega-cities. That’s precisely what’s happening now. Tokyo, once celebrated as the most inhabited city on Earth, has officially been displaced from its top spot, relinquishing the title to Jakarta, the bustling capital of Indonesia. Following Jakarta is Dhaka, the vibrant capital of Bangladesh, in the race for superlative city status. But here’s where it gets controversial—this change isn’t solely due to population growth but also reflects evolving definitions of what constitutes a city and its boundaries, revealing deeper global demographic shifts.
This significant update comes from the November 2025 release of the United Nations’ World Urbanization Prospects 2025 report. According to this authoritative source, Jakarta now boasts a population nearing 42 million, making it the most populous city worldwide. Dhaka follows close behind with nearly 40 million residents, while Tokyo’s population, previously considered the largest, now stands at around 33 million.
Historically, Tokyo was unrivaled in the global rankings, primarily because of its extensive urban sprawl—often including surrounding prefectures like Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba—forming a vast metropolitan area. This region also includes Yokohama, Japan’s second-largest city population-wise. However, if you focus just on the city proper, Tokyo itself is relatively smaller, housing roughly 14 million residents.
The recent UN report introduces a revised methodology for defining urban areas, aiming to create a more standardized approach that dissolves the previous reliance on country-specific city definitions. This new framework considers the entire urban footprint, which vastly increases Jakarta’s perceived population by about 30 million—thus catapulting it to the top of the list.
But these statistical changes mirror real-world demographic trends, too. Japan’s population has been steadily shrinking over the years due to a combination of factors such as an aging population, persistently low birth rates, and minimal immigration. Remarkably, 2025 marked Japan’s 16th straight year of population decline, illustrating a long-standing demographic challenge.
While Tokyo’s metro population continues to inch upward, this growth is slowing, and experts predict a demographic downturn may be imminent in the coming decades. The UN reports highlight that, unlike other burgeoning cities, Tokyo has experienced slower growth compared to Jakarta and Dhaka over the past 25 years. As a result, its ranking amongst the world’s largest cities has fallen from first place in 2000 to third place in 2025.
This phenomenon is especially unusual for 21st-century urban trends. Out of the top ten most populous cities, Tokyo and Seoul are the only ones expected to face population declines by mid-century. As urban populations swell elsewhere, particularly across Asia, Tokyo’s ranking is expected to decline further. Forecasts suggest that by 2050, Tokyo’s population may decrease to roughly 30.7 million, dropping it to seventh place.
Looking ahead, Dhaka is projected to be the fastest-growing city among the top ten, with an annual growth rate approaching 5 percent from 2025 until 2050. Shanghai is also forecasted to climb significantly in rankings, moving from fifth to third, with a population of approximately 34.9 million.
By the middle of the century, the list of the world's most populous cities is expected to feature a mostly Asian-centric lineup, with Dhaka leading, followed by Jakarta, Shanghai, New Delhi, and others. Here’s a snapshot of the projected top ten:
- Dhaka (around 52.1 million)
- Jakarta (about 51.8 million)
- Shanghai (roughly 34.9 million)
- New Delhi (around 33.9 million)
- Karachi (about 32.6 million)
- Cairo (approximately 32.4 million)
- Tokyo (about 30.7 million)
- Guangzhou (approximately 29.2 million)
- Manila (roughly 27.1 million)
- Kolkata (around 23.8 million)
This new landscape of urban population rankings demonstrates the shifting demographics and urbanization patterns across the globe. It raises compelling questions about urban planning, resource distribution, and the future of megacities. Do you agree with these projections? Or do you think unforeseen factors could still reshape this future? Share your thoughts and join the conversation—this demographic evolution is just beginning to unfold.
